The August and the Crises: Where Was the “Black Swan” Hiding?

On 8 August, 2018 the online conference of the “Finam” Agency was devoted to issues related to the assessment of the probability of the potential financial crisis in 2019 – 2020. Such expectations of economists are associated with worsening forecasts of the World Bank on world economic growth after the period of 2019. Pessimistic estimates are also provided by the Bank of America’s experts who believe that the situation in 2018 resembles the trends of 1998. Thus, the decline is due to the fall in the assests of technology companies in the US, the decline in global demand for energy, as well as the threat of trade wars between the US and China.

The experts from EDSG were among the participants of the conference. They shared their views on the economic situation in Russia and on the relationships between trends in the Russian and global economies. In their view, the risks for the Russian economy need to be considered in the context of the general world situation, which could worsen after 2019 with the fall of the world GDP to 2.9% in 2020. The worsening of the global dynamics may be due to protectionism in trade, volatility in the financial markets, as well as to reduction in demand for commodities, and as a result, a decline in prices. The Russian economy can be protected from the global recession by factors such as relatively low public debt, budget surplus. These parameters (together with the decrease in fuel prices) became the main cause of the Russian default in 1998.

The link to the news of Finam Agency (in Russian)