The August and the Crises: Where Was the “Black Swan” Hiding?

On 8 August, 2018 the online conference of the “Finam” Agency was devoted to issues related to the assessment of the probability of the potential financial crisis in 2019 – 2020. Such expectations of economists are associated with worsening forecasts of the World Bank on world economic growth after the period of 2019. Pessimistic estimates are also provided by the Bank of America’s experts who believe that the situation in 2018 resembles the trends of 1998. Thus, the decline is due to the fall in the assests of technology companies in the US, the decline in global demand for energy, as well as the threat of trade wars between the US and China.

The experts from EDSG were among the participants of the conference. They shared their views on the economic situation in Russia and on the relationships between trends in the Russian and global economies. In their view, the risks for the Russian economy need to be considered in the context of the general world situation, which could worsen after 2019 with the fall of the world GDP to 2.9% in 2020. The worsening of the global dynamics may be due to protectionism in trade, volatility in the financial markets, as well as to reduction in demand for commodities, and as a result, a decline in prices. The Russian economy can be protected from the global recession by factors such as relatively low public debt, budget surplus. These parameters (together with the decrease in fuel prices) became the main cause of the Russian default in 1998.

The link to the news of Finam Agency (in Russian)

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Round table: «Practical and methodological problems of Russian IDA programs assessment»

On June 6, 2018 Center for Strategic Research (CSR) in partnership with RANEPA hosted a round table devoted to issues of programmes and projects in the field of international development assistance (IDA) assessment. The Round table was attended by representatives of government agencies involved in Russian IDA programs and projects (Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, The Presidential Executive Office, Rossotrunichestvo, Center for Strategic Research), representatives from expert community (Process Consulting Company, Association of Specialists in Program and Policy Evaluation, Russian Association of Statisticians, EDSG) and academic community (RANEPA, MSU), as well as experts from international organizations (World Bank).

During the round table experts discussed practical and methodological issues of Russian IDA programs and projects assessment, as well as issues of stating national evaluation system and community of practitioners for Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) of Russia IDA programs and projects.

EDSG executive director and member of EVALSDGs network, performed a presentation «Methodological aspects of the assessment: interaction and cooperation». During his presentation, expert highlighted the importance of building community of practitioners in sphere of M&E and he told about specific tools of communication and knowledge-sharing. He presented new online sharing-knowledge site www.monitoring-evaluation.ru. M&E site is a source of information and tool for communication.

Representatives of the expert community, Alexey Kuzmin, Process Consulting Company CEO, and Natalia Kosheleva, Board member of the Association of Specialists in Program and Policy Evaluation (ASPPE), performed presentations on practical aspects and methodological approaches to evaluation of IDA programmes, main challenges and opportunities in this sphere.

The round table became a second event on M&E issues. The first round table «Assessement of Russian’s foreign economic activities» took place on December 7, 2017.

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The Russian Economy: the new government and the old tasks

On May 8, 2018, the FINAM Information Agency conducted on-line Conference on the set tasks for the development of the Russian economy named as «Russian Economy: the new government and the old tasks» in wich EDSG experts took part. During the conference the issues of searching for new sources for economic growth, problems of raising the retirement age, as well as increasing the real incomes of the population were discussed.

According to experts, prospective sources of growth for the Russian economy may be related to structural reforms. An additional impetus can be given by systemic changes in the interrelationship between sectors of the economy, taking into account the specifics of their output and their contribution to GDP. Part of this can contribute to the already launched initiative of digitalization of the Russian economy. Now the contribution of the digital sector into the Russian GDP does not exceed 2.8% (while in Korea this figure is above 10%). The development of the digital sector can be an additional source for the growth of the domestic economy.

Experts shared their views on the question if the help for the oligarchs who were brought under the sanctions (first of all, Deripaska) is provided. In their opinion, more likely scenario is the nationalization of part of the shares of RUSAL. Undoubtedly, the enterprise has systemic significance for the industry, influencing the supply and demand factors in the market. Nevertheless, the industry’s influence has not come strongly in the economy to influence the parameters on the national currency.

Link to the FINAM news

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Economic effects of the sanctions

EDSG experts told about the economic effects of the imposed sanctions in their comments to Russian mass media.

In general, according to experts, the volatility of the stock and currency market was the first reaction of the Russian market, which should soon come to equilibrium. So far, the economy has not suffered. We need to see how the market will adapt to the new situation.

Offshore zones on the territory of Russia can play a positive role. They will reduce risks for on-lending to enterprises.

As for Russian counter-forces, according to experts, their effect will not be of great importance for the US economy. This is due to the low intensity of economic interaction.

External link to mass media

External link to mass media

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Agenda-2030 as a Guide for Policy in the Field of International Development Assistance: Priorities and Opportunities of Russia

On March 30, 2018, the Center for Strategic Research held, within the framework of the International Youth Forum on Sustainable Development, an expert session devoted to the role of the SDGs in Russian government policy in the field of international development assistance (IDA). The participants of the event discussed the priority directions of the SDGs implementation, the possibilities of their inclusion in bilateral assistance programs, and the role of business as an IDA actor. The EDSG experts took part in the discussions held during the session.
The sustainable development goals are formulated both for developing as well as for developed countries. In the field of promoting international development (IDA), they serve as a reference system and a “common language” for recipient countries, traditional and new donors, international and non-governmental organizations, and private businesses. SDGs are comprehensive, which allows actors involved in international assistance to determine their own priorities, taking into account both the global agenda and national interests.

Event reference

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Model United Nations of the Russian Far East (MUNRFE) Annual Conference 2017

On December 1-5, 2017 in Vladivostok, Russia, Model United Nations of the Russian Far East (MUNRFE) hosted its Annual Conference. As part of the Conference EDSG Executive Director, Mr. Oleg Dunaev, being also a member of the EVALSDGs network, delivered a number of seminars on various aspects of Sustainable Development and Monitoring & Evaluation.

Mr. Dunaev provided the participants with the basic background of Sustainable Development and fundamental principles and importance of Monitoring & Evaluation. In particular, the following topics were covered:

  • Principles of Sustainable Development
  • Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) – the way to Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
  • Importance of the SDGs for international community
  • Importance of the SDGs for countries
  • What can everyone do to help achieve SDGs
  • Basic principles of Monitoring and Evaluation
  • Importance of Monitoring and Evaluation for Sustainable Development

Additionally, Oleg gave an overview of the role of International organizations in achieving and assessing SDGs. Special attention was paid to:

  • The role of youth in SDGs implementation
  • UN Evaluation Group (UNEG)
  • The importance of Evaluation of the SDGs
  • The role of International evaluation associations in achieving SDGs

All topics were extremely well received by the participants and got a lot of feedback.

Download presentation:

The role of youth and International associations in implementation and evaluation of SDGs

 

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Meeting of the Russian branch of the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN)

On January 17, 2018, an annual meeting of the Russian branch of the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN) was held on the margins of the Gaidar Forum.

Network coordinators presented the results of the work performed and announced webinars, educational courses and scientific events on sustainable development in 2018. Also, John Laitner, Senior Researcher at the Center for economic modelling of energy and ecology of RANEPA, presented report on the economic nature of resource efficiency.

During the meeting, the participants, including EDSG experts, exchanged recommendations on the Network activities in 2018 and confirmed their intentions for long-term cooperation

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The 2017 for the Russian economy was more positive than expected

On 15 December 2017, the FINAM agency conducted an on-line conference dedicated to the economic results of 2017.

The conference was attended by experts-economists, representatives of the academic and business community, as well as experts EDSG. During the conference, issues of restoring economic growth in the Russian economy, incomes of the population, inflation, industry, as well as investments in the real sector of the economy were discussed.

The experts pointed to the Russian economy’s exit from the recession and its transition to growth. Nevertheless, economists are not optimistic, calling the current growth of Russia’s GDP unstable, speaking about the statistical effect (low base effect) and predicting the economy stagnation.

More information (in Russian)

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RANEPA round table “Assessement of Russian’s foreign economic activities”

On December 7, 2017, the International Trade Research Laboratory of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) in cooperation with the World Bank and EDSG hosted a round table to discuss the issues of assessing Russian’s foreign economic activities. The round table was attended by representatives of the academia, expert community and international organizations. Experts discussed practical and methodological issues related to assessment of foreign economic activities on trade, foreign investment, development assistance and the issues of establishing M&E systems in Russia and in the Eurasian Economic Union countries.

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Second International Scientific and Practical Conference “Central Asian Water Forum”

On November 2-3, 2017, in Almaty, Kazakhstan, International Science and Technology Center (ISTC) and German-Kazakh University held Second International Scientific and Practical Conference “Central Asian Water Forum”.

Water resources have primarily importance for crossregional cooperation in Central Asia (CA). Representatives of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Kazakhstan, EU delegation, researchers from Eurasian, American, European universities and scientific organizations, as well as employees of transnational and consulting companies, including EDSG experts participated in the conference to discuss these issues.

During the conference academics and practitioners from CA countries and some European countries presented new projects in the sphere of water management in Central Asia and took part in numerous discussions on the topic. Also a number of progressive and innovative approaches for water resource management, including using solar energy installations in water management and secondary water cleaning and artificial injection back into the ground were presented.

Key speakers and independent commentators during the conference highlighted a number of important aspects and problems related to the management of water resources, and also discussed possible ways of solving the problems, further steps and perspectives.

The conference concluded with the thematic workshop where main donors spoke about financing possibilities for stakeholders, their needs and priorities.

The conference became a second step in a chain of forums and conferences on water management problems, started by ISTC and German-Kazakh University.

 

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